Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq fall as 10-year Treasury yield touches 2007 high ahead of Fed decision day

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq fall as 10-year Treasury yield touches 2007 high ahead of Fed decision day Grace O'Donnell , Jake Conley , Brooke DiPalma , David Hollerith and Ines Ferré Updated Tue, September 15, 2026 at 10:02 PM GMT+2 1 min read CL=F ^GSPC ^DJI ^IXIC ^TNX US stocks fell for a second day in a row on Tuesday as investors braced for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday and monitored the fallout from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's essay on AI safety fears. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ( ^IXIC ) declined 0. 8% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( ^DJI ) dropped 0.

7%. The S&P 500 ( ^GSPC ) tumbled more than 0. 4%.

Oil prices ticked back up, with Brent crude ( BZ=F ) and WTI crude ( CL=F ) changing hands at $108 and $105 per barrel, respectively. Prices have remained elevated since Saudi Arabia shuttered its East-West pipeline and the Iranian-backed Houthis launched fresh attacks in the Middle East. Bond yields have also shot up as investors await the next Fed policy decision.

The yield on the 10-year note ( ^TNX ) hovered around 5%. The move follows the key interest rate briefly rising overnight to its highest intraday level since 2007, underscoring concerns about rising borrowing costs, global deficits, and inflation. The Federal Open Market Committee began its September meeting on Tuesday, with traders overwhelmingly expecting a rate hike.

The release of the so-called dot plot , along with Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's press conference, could offer investors clues about the prevailing winds in the Fed's monetary policy. LIVE COVERAGE IS OVER 13 updates Tue, September 15, 2026 at 8:02 PM UTC Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq fall for 2nd day in a row as bond yields rise, oil tops $108 Stocks fell on Tuesday as a rise in oil prices briefly sent Treasury yields to 2007 highs ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ( ^IXIC ) fell roughly 0.

8% while the S&P 500 ( ^GSPC ) dropped by more than 0. 4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ( ^DJI ) was down 0.

6%. Investors expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, as oil prices remain above $108 per barrel. Tue, September 15, 2026 at 7:15 PM UTC AI chip boom far from over as BofA raises market forecast to $3.

2 trillion While some investors worry about a potential pullback in artificial intelligence spending, BofA analyst Vivek Arya argues that the semiconductor industry has a long runway ahead amid hardware and power constraints. Arya raised his 2030 chip market estimate from $2. 7 trillion to $3.

2 trillion, which represents an 18% annual growth rate. The revised forecast was driven by overwhelming demand for data center capacity, advanced logic, and memory equipment. The analysts said the industry took 50 years to hit its first $1 trillion mark and is now on track to double today's market size in just four years.

"Despite rising concerns around potential AI infra/investment slowdown, we see no signs of slowing in customer orders, LTAs [long-term agreements], capacity commitments, or semis pricing," he wrote on Tuesday Tue, September 15, 2026 at 7:11 PM UTC Bitcoin tumbles 4% to session low north of $75,000 Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) fell 4% to a session low and hovered just north of $75,000 before paring losses on Tuesday after the CLARITY Act failed to garner enough cloture votes in the Senate. Hopes of securing the 60 votes needed to proceed faded ahead of the afternoon vote as Republicans and Democrats remained divided over the latest version of the bill. Polymarket bettors gave the bill a 5% chance of becoming law this year .

Investors now fear it will be shelved until after the midterm elections and potentially pushed to 2029. Tue, September 15, 2026 at 6:26 PM UTC David Hollerith Bessent says Treasury seeking to deliver Trump's $5k dividend without adding to deficit US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says there is a way to give Americans $5k dividend without going through Congress and he believes it can be done without adding to the nation's deficit. Jennifer Schonberger reports: Testifying before the House Financial Services Committee, Bessent said Treasury officials have been developing the proposal for some time, though he declined to provide specifics on how the plan would be funded without driving up the nation's debt.

"That is in process right now," Bessent said. "I'm not ready to discuss it at present, but at Treasury, we've been working on it for quite a while. " "I think putting more money in the American people's pocket should be an objective for everyone, and I believe there are ways to do it that would not affect the deficit," he added.

If executive action isn't legally viable, Bessent said, the administration is prepared to take the legislative route. "If it becomes clear that we need congressional authority, I will meet with [House Speaker Mike Johnson], and I look forward to it. " Bessent's comments come after a Republican gathering in Dallas last week where President Trump promised to give every American a $5,000 "Trump Dividend" if the Republican Party wins in the midterms and maintains control of both the House and the Senate.

Read more: Tue, September 15, 2026 at 5:13 PM UTC Jake Conley Fed rate hike could disproportionally impact lower-income consumers, says investing CIO The market has priced in a roughly 93% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points at tomorrow's meeting as Kevin Warsh's FOMC attempts to get a handle on inflation. That may disproportionally impact the bottom portion of America's "K-shaped" economy, raising debt servicing costs without providing legitimate relief, according to Mast Investments CIO Yung-Shin Kung. "The primary mode through which hiking would work is by imparting greater stress on the bottom of the "K" which is already struggling through a supply shock," Kung wrote on Tuesday.

"Hiking would be a high-sacrifice-ratio, poorly targeted tool that extracts most of its cost from people who aren't the source of the inflation problem. " Primary responsibility for the inflation crisis, Kung said, belongs to tariffs, the AI buildout, the oil supply stock, and stock market wealth accumulation — all of which he argues are better addressed through balance sheet adjustments by the Fed, not by moving rates. Raising rates doesn't create more oil, the argument goes.

Lower-income consumers would effectively see their wallets hit twice, Kung said. First, they must pay the increased prices seen on categories such as food and housing, "which a funds-rate hike barely touches. " Then, tighter credit conditions make debt servicing more expensive.

Meanwhile, Kung said, "the real driver of any genuine excess demand sails through mostly unaffected. " Tue, September 15, 2026 at 4:13 PM UTC David Hollerith Bitcoin falls ahead of key Senate vote for Crypto’s big bill Bitcoin ( BTC ) has fallen 3% ahead of a key Senate vote this afternoon for crypto's big bill. Ines Ferré reports: The world's largest cryptocurrency lost ground ahead of a Fed decision this week and a key Senate procedural vote on the CLARITY Act , which is set for Tuesday afternoon.

Hopes of securing the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster faded after Republicans balked at a Democratic counteroffer hours before the vote. Polymarket bettors gave the bill a 12% chance of becoming law this year. As a result, investors fear that the legislation will be shelved past the midterm elections and potentially kicked down the road into 2029.

The landmark legislation "gives developers, innovators, traditional financial companies, all of us, the regulatory certainty we need to know how to build the next generation of finance and what rules apply," Coinbase ( COIN ) chief policy officer Faryar Shirzad told Yahoo Finance on Monday. Read More : Tue, September 15, 2026 at 3:41 PM UTC Jake Conley Consumer spending held up through the summer, says BofA Consumer spending remained hot through the summer, even as Americans faced down continued over-target inflation, according to a new survey from Bank of America. Total credit card spending rose 4.

5% year-on-year in August, per the BofA survey results published Tuesday. That's more than four times last year's average pace, the survey found. Month-on-month, spending accelerated by 0.

9%. Total card spending per household rose 4. 5% year-over-year, per Bank of America.

Chart: Bank of America Institute · Bank of America Institute "Americans are still ramping up their discretionary spending across both goods and services," Liz Everett King, head of the Bank of America Institute, and BofA senior economist David Tinsley wrote. Some of that uptick in spending was driven by higher gasoline prices, which have complicated the Fed's path forward as the war in Iran shows no sign of slowing down. Excluding gasoline, spending rose 3.

7% year-on-year in August, per the survey. Even so, per King and Tinsley, the data suggests that "consumers are increasing their spending because they want to and not because they have to. " Tue, September 15, 2026 at 2:01 PM UTC Jake Conley Oil prices tick up as pressure grows in physical market Futures on the primary benchmark contracts for oil climbed once more on Tuesday, re-approaching highs set on Monday as markets continued to digest the shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and more attacks in the Red Sea Contracts on Brent crude ( BZ=F ), the international benchmark, climbed by roughly 1.

9% to cross back over $107 after pulling back to roughly $105 per barrel. Meanwhile, those on US benchmark WTI crude ( CL=F ) jumped by 2. 2% to trade above $103.

50. All eyes in the energy market remained focused on Tuesday on the Red Sea, where Saudi Arabia has faced a series of attacks on critical energy infrastructure from the Yemeni Houthi militia group and other Iran-backed proxy forces operating in Iraq. The most pressing concern are attacks that have forced Saudi authorities to shutter the kingdom's East-West pipeline, the 7 million barrel-per-day capacity of which has become a crucial pathway to get oil out of the Persian Gulf.

That pipeline carries oil to the port of Yanbu, where exports fell to below 2 mbd in August, per Goldman Sachs. Futures pricing remains roughly $10 per barrel below the highs seen in the early days of the war, but in the physical market, where oil is actually bought, sold, and transported, prices have spiked much higher. So-called "Dated Brent," the the benchmark for pricing much of the world's physical crude oil, was trading hands above $130 per barrel on Tuesday, per Bloomberg data.

Grades in Dubai and Oman held around $128. Tue, September 15, 2026 at 1:35 PM UTC David Hollerith Stocks open lower as rising oil prices pressure Treasury yields Stocks opened slightly lower as rising oil prices kept fresh pressure on Treasury yields overnight, briefly pushing them past their highest level since 2007 before easing early Tuesday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ( ^IXIC ) fell 0.

3% and the S&P 500 ( ^GSPC ) dropped each fell 0. 2% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( ^DJI ) was down 0. 7%.

Oil prices remained elevated as disruptions to Middle East supplies intensified. Brent crude ( BZ=F ) prices, which eased in the last 12 hours, remained above $100 per barrel Tuesday morning. Investors are also positioning ahead of the Fed's two-day Federal Open Markets Committee meeting, which begins today.

Traders are now pricing a quarter point rate hike as a done deal with the probability at 91%, according to the CME's FedWatch tool . A majority of the financial services sector is also giving their mid-quarter weigh-ins this week at a financial services conference hosted by investment bank Barclays. Executives are expected to weigh in on their third-quarter performance so far along with their views on the state of the economy, markets and the health of the US consumer.

Tue, September 15, 2026 at 11:00 AM UTC Grace O'Donnell Dollar near two-week high as oil surge lifts yields, Fed hike bets The dollar ( DX-Y. NYB ) gained on Tuesday as investors took risk off the table and sold AI-related stocks amid concerns that the industry would slow the pace of development. The dollar index stood above 99, its highest level in two weeks, supporting the view that the Fed will raise rates this week.

Reuters reports: Markets now see a Fed hike on Wednesday as ​a near certainty, with CME's FedWatch tool pricing in a roughly 93% chance of an interest-rate increase, which would be the first in more than three years. "The combination of higher oil, higher U. S.

yields and weaker risk appetite helped lift the U. S. dollar broadly," Christopher Wong, FX analyst at OCBC, said in a note.

Near-term support may persist, but with a hike now ‌heavily priced in, further dollar upside will likely ⁠require the Fed to keep the door open to additional tightening, he added. Read more. Tue, September 15, 2026 at 10:00 AM UTC Grace O'Donnell Here's where the biggest tech names stand on slowing AI development Yahoo Finance's Dan Howley reports: Controversy rocked the tech industry on Monday after the heads of some of the largest AI companies called for pacing the development of frontier AI models.

The uproar kicked off after Anthropic ( ANTH. PVT ) CEO Dario Amodei posted a lengthy essay on Saturday saying that AI labs need to take steps to prevent the technology from causing harm, including slowing the creation of ever more powerful models and asking the government to regulate the broader industry. Amodei's essay quickly elicited responses from heavyweights across both the tech and political landscapes.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman: Agrees with Amodei OpenAI ( OPAI. PVT ) CEO Sam Altman wrote in a Saturday post on X that he agreed with his rival, adding, "we need to pace the frontier. " SpaceX CEO Elon Musk: Agrees with Amodei SpaceX ( SPCX ) CEO Elon Musk also chimed in, writing on X, "Dario is right," and adding that he's been warning about the dangers of AI for years.

He also replied to a user's post saying that he's open to having AI companies peer review each other's AI models. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang: Says extinction fears are made up Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang commented on Amodei's essay and prediction that the technology would kill all humans during an appearance at the All In Summit, saying that while it's important to keep safety in mind, the idea that AI will lead to human extinction is fiction. Microsoft: Releases AI code of conduct Also on Monday, Microsoft ( MSFT ) released a preliminary code of conduct for developing what it calls humanist AI.

The company said the overarching directive driving the code of conduct is "that humans must retain meaningful control over AI so that it can help people live healthier, happier, and more productive lives. " Read more. Tue, September 15, 2026 at 9:00 AM UTC Grace O'Donnell Good morning.

Here's what's happening today. Economic data: ADP weekly employment change, week ended Aug. 29 (+12,000 previously); Empire manufacturing, September (14.

1 expected, 20. 6 previously) Earnings calendar: Forgent Power Solutions ( FPS ); Vera Bradley ( VRA ) Catch up on some top stories you may have missed overnight: Stocks pop when the Trump administration invests, but the gains often fade fast Fed rate hikes historically spell early trouble for the S&P 500 Carney says US deal possible, blow-up helped clarify 'red lines' Bank of America stock slides — and it's dragging the sector with it Jamie Dimon says the American dream is slipping away Tue, September 15, 2026 at 8:00 AM UTC Grace O'Donnell Asian shares waver as oil and yields rise ahead of Fed, BOJ meetings Reuters reports: Asian shares struggled on Tuesday as investors weighed Middle East tensions and calls by industry figures for a slowdown in AI development, while elevated oil prices and higher bond yields ‌added to caution before key central bank meetings in the U. S.

and Japan. Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis launched a new ‌attack on Saudi Arabia on Monday, after Riyadh blamed Iran-backed fighters in Iraq for an attack on the kingdom's east-west pipeline that it said could disrupt as ​much as 4% of global oil supply. Gulf Arab states also postponed planned talks with Iran.

Renewed supply concerns kept markets on edge, with U. S. crude rising 1.

27% to $102. 68 a barrel while Brent was up 1. 21% to $106.

96 per barrel. "Markets are likely to remain focused on the risk that higher crude oil prices could add to inflationary pressures and, in turn, push interest rates higher," said Yokoo Akihiko, analyst at ‌Mitsubishi UFJ Bank, in a note. Read more.